Scotland’s growing challenge: Turning evidence into action on healthy weight

Dr Grant Wyper, Principal Epidemiologist 

Claire Hislop RNutr (Public Health), Organisational Lead – Food & Physical Activity 

New research from Public Health Scotland (PHS), conducted in collaboration with Sciensano and recently published in Public Health, the journal of the Royal Society of Public Health, projects an increase in the number of adult cases of excess weight in Scotland by 2040. The findings highlight the scale of the challenge for both population health and future care services. 

A growing challenge for Scotland 

Today, nearly two-thirds of all adults in Scotland are living with overweight or obesity—a rate that ranks among the highest in Europe. Our new analysis, drawing on over 15 years of Scottish Health Survey data, suggests this number could rise to 3.3 million adults by 2040 if current trends continue. 

The greatest increases are projected for obesity, with an estimated additional 118,000 females and 36,000 males living with obesity between 2025 and 2040. What is especially concerning is the rising number of cases among adults aged 65 and over, which risks placing even greater pressure on our already stretched health and social care systems.  

These findings present a clear and undeniable warning of unsustainable pressures on Scotland's NHS and social care services, compromising the quality of life for millions. But they also serve as an important catalyst for change. These projections are not set in stone, and with fundamental, sustained, and system-wide action, Scotland can reverse this course. 

Prevention and support go hand-in-hand 

Healthy weight is shaped far more by the environments we live in than by individual choices alone. PHS is committed to improving diet by influencing change within the food environment and supporting coordinated action to reduce the prevalence of obesity and associated health inequalities in Scotland. 

The evidence shows we must accelerate progress on bold, preventative measures that reshape the food environment and ensure healthier options are not only accessible and affordable, but widely available to everyone. 

Achieving this means combining prevention with comprehensive support. Population-level measures — such as reducing the marketing and promotion of unhealthy foods, improving access to affordable, nutritious options, and creating environments that support physical activity — are essential to slow and ultimately reverse current trends. At the same time, ensuring accessible, compassionate, and effective weight management services is crucial to improving health and wellbeing for those already affected. 

Collaborating for a healthier future 

Our research reinforces the ambitions of Scotland’s Population Health Framework, which prioritises improving healthy weight as a key priority focus. Delivering on this will require coordinated effort across Government, public bodies, the third sector, and communities — working together to create the conditions for better health and reduced inequalities. 

The projections from this research are not a fixed outcome. They represent an opportunity: to act decisively, align efforts, and make lasting progress towards a healthier Scotland. With bold, evidence-based action, we can make healthier choices the easier choices and ensure a healthier future for the people of Scotland. 

About the research 

De Pauw R, Lakha F, Fletcher E, Stockton DL, Baird E, Connolly S, Devleesschauwer B, Wyper GMA. Historic trends and future projections of the prevalence of adult excess weight in Scotland, 2003 to 2040: A modelling study. Public Health. 2025;248:105981. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2025.105981. Read the article. 

Information on Public Health Scotland’s physical activity and food areas of work 

Read the Scottish Public Health Systems consensus statement on improving Scotland’s diet and weight 

About Public Health Scotland 

Public Health Scotland’s (PHS) mission is to protect and improve the health and wellbeing of the people of Scotland and to reduce inequalities in health. PHS provides robust data, evidence and practical support, working with partners across sectors, to take informed action to create the conditions for a healthier population.